On record: 14 meetings from 2019, 23-34 on aggregate, 2 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 3-4 in comp-apf-MLS. Today those sides rate 1388 and 1512, 124 apart, which resolves to 28.6% / 25.9% / 45.4%.
The higher rating expects 58.4% of the points, the lower 41.6%. Point estimate: 2-2. No scoreline clear 8% individually. A 124-point spread sits between the two figures. A 19.5-point range top to bottom. Versus the 1500 seed: -112 and +12. Someone wins 74.0% of the time by this model. With 512 and 273 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. FC Cincinnati has the better scoring rate (1.39) and CF Montreal the better defensive one (1.48). Most likely single result is FC Cincinnati on 45.4%. xG: 2.38 to 2.78. The scoreline spread is even — 2-2 on 6.3% leads, but only just. The four component numbers read 0.95, 1.48, 1.39, 1.69. Final score: 3-1. The away side is rated higher. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. FC Cincinnati holds a 16.8-point edge on the next outcome. Before kickoff our model had this at 25.1% / 24.9% / 50.0%. That one did not come off.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
CF Montreal beat FC Cincinnati 3-1 at Saputo Stadium, Montreal on 26 September 2026. Daniel Rios opened the scoring in the 25th minute for CF Montreal to make it 1-0. Tom Barlow levelled it 64 minutes into the game for FC Cincinnati, set up by Gerardo Valenzuela, to make it 1-1. CF Montreal regained the lead through Prince-Osei Owusu from the penalty spot 72 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Prince-Osei Owusu added to the tally 75 minutes into the game for CF Montreal, set up by Daniel Rios, to make it 3-1. Matthew Longstaff (33'), Fabian Herbers (47'), Roman Celentano (71') and Teenage Hadebe (86') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make FC Cincinnati clearly the stronger side, by 124 rating points over CF Montreal, even though it was CF Montreal who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives CF Montreal only a 28.6% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.