On record: 23 meetings from 2015, 43-35 on aggregate, 7 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 3-4 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1610 and 1480, giving 64.8% / 21.2% / 14.0%.
The model's preferred outcome is Philadelphia Union at 64.8%. By expected share of the points: 75.4% and 24.6%. The four component numbers read 1.71, 1.09, 1.31, 1.70. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Expected goals sit at 4.33 against 1.94. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Played and finished 4-2. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +110 and -20. Logged in advance of kickoff — 59.3% / 22.7% / 18.0%. It landed. Behind them are 527 and 411 rated matches. Reduced to one result that is 4-1. Both components point the same way, toward Philadelphia Union: 1.71 to 1.31 going forward, 1.09 to 1.70 going back. Most and least likely outcomes are 50.8 points apart. Flat distribution — 4-1 tops it at just 5.4%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Ratings sit 130 apart. Win-or-lose totals 78.8%; the draw takes the rest.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Philadelphia Union beat Orlando City SC 4-2 at Talen Energy Stadium, Philadelphia on 26 September 2026. Milan Iloski opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 11 minutes for Philadelphia Union to make it 1-0. Milan Iloski added to the tally in the 19th minute for Philadelphia Union, set up by Indiana Vassilev, to make it 2-0. Indiana Vassilev added to the tally 47 minutes into the game for Philadelphia Union, set up by Jesus Bueno, to make it 3-0. Milan Iloski added to the tally 51 minutes into the game for Philadelphia Union, set up by Indiana Vassilev, to make it 4-0. Iván Angulo got one back 78 minutes into the game for Orlando City SC, set up by Antoine Griezmann, to make it 1-4. Martin Ojeda got one back late on, in the 90th minute for Orlando City SC, set up by Harvey Graham Sarajian, to make it 2-4. Eduard Atuesta (12'), Iago Teodoro (37'), Joran Gerbet (43'), Quinn Sullivan (62'), Japhet Sery Larsen (77') and Iván Angulo (84') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Philadelphia Union 130 points stronger than Orlando City SC. On current ratings the model favours Philadelphia Union at 64.8% in this pairing, and Philadelphia Union won this one. Philadelphia Union's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive wins in the 2026 Major League Soccer.