Honours split: 1.86 forward for Inter Miami, 1.20 back for San Diego. On rating it is 1654 against 1535, which the model resolves to 63.5% / 21.6% / 15.0%.
Reduced to one result that is 3-2. 78.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 61.2% / 22.2% / 16.6%. That one did not come off. Both figures rest on decent samples, 241 and 63 matches. Inter Miami sits 41.9 points above the next most likely result. In absolute terms: Inter Miami 1.86/1.30, San Diego 1.25/1.20 on attack and defence. Rating separation comes to 119 points. The scoreline spread is even — 3-2 on 5.9% leads, but only just. The model's preferred outcome is Inter Miami at 63.5%. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Elo expected shares: 74.3% and 25.7%. Higher rating: the home side. Played and finished 2-2. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. On expected goals the model has it 3.31 against 2.20. Spread across the three results is 48.5 points. Versus the 1500 seed: +154 and +35.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Inter Miami and San Diego drew 2-2 on 20 September 2026. A. Dreyer opened the scoring inside the first 12 minutes for San Diego, set up by J. Tverskov, to make it 1-0. L. Messi levelled it in the 23rd minute for Inter Miami to make it 1-1. L. Suarez put Inter Miami in front 75 minutes into the game, set up by R. de Paul, to make it 2-1. A. Dreyer levelled it late on, in the 82nd minute for San Diego to make it 2-2. I. Murphy (33'), Y. Bright (65') and A. Shaw (82') were booked. Inter Miami are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.