Across 22 recorded meetings back to 2016 the split is 11-1-10 in Real Salt Lake's favour on wins, 33-30 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1433 against 1672 — a 15.9% / 21.9% / 62.1% split.
Win-or-lose totals 78.0%; the draw takes the rest. Neither figure is thin: 522 and 390 matches respectively sit behind them. Expected goals come out at 0.94 to 2.66. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The scoreline spread is even — 0-2 on 9.6% leads, but only just. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -67 and +172. A 46.2-point range top to bottom. Raw profiles are 0.91 and 1.27 against 1.56 and 0.70. As a single number the model says 0-2. By expected share of the points: 26.9% and 73.1%. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Vancouver Whitecaps holds a 40.2-point edge on the next outcome. Higher rating: the away side. Final score: 0-3. 239 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Top of the distribution: Vancouver Whitecaps, 62.1%. Before kickoff our model had this at 20.8% / 23.6% / 55.6%. The result went the way that forecast pointed.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Vancouver Whitecaps comfortably beat Real Salt Lake 3-0 on 20 September 2026. B. White opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for Vancouver Whitecaps, set up by O. Larraz, to make it 1-0. T. Muller added to the tally in the 29th minute for Vancouver Whitecaps, set up by Y. Diaby, to make it 2-0. Y. Diaby added to the tally 64 minutes into the game for Vancouver Whitecaps to make it 3-0. T. Johnson (49'), J. Badwal (52'), N. Caliskan (59'), T. Blackmon (66'), M. Guilavogui (72') and Y. Diaby (81') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Vancouver Whitecaps 239 points stronger than Real Salt Lake. On current ratings the model favours Vancouver Whitecaps at 62.1% in this pairing, and Vancouver Whitecaps won this one. Real Salt Lake's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026.