Rated 1570 and 1462, these two produce a 62.1% / 21.9% / 15.9% split. St. Louis City is ahead on each half — 1.36 to 1.20 in attack, 1.07 to 1.39 in defence.
Rating separation comes to 108 points. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +70 and -38. St. Louis City holds a 40.2-point edge on the next outcome. The distribution runs from 62.1% down to 15.9%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 7.3%. Rounded, that is 2-1. Raw profiles are 1.36 and 1.07 against 1.20 and 1.39. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.81 and 1.73. Before kickoff our model had this at 57.0% / 23.2% / 19.8%. That call matched the result. Neither figure is thin: 129 and 520 matches respectively sit behind them. Elo expected shares: 73.0% and 27.0%. Win-or-lose totals 78.0%; the draw takes the rest. They have met once on record — 2023, 1-0 in comp-apf-MLS, which is too little history to weigh. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Result on the day: 3-1. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
St. Louis City beat Toronto FC 3-1 on 20 September 2026. C. Holse opened the scoring in the 41st minute for St. Louis City, set up by A. Matan, to make it 1-0. T. Totland added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for St. Louis City, set up by A. Matan, to make it 2-0. S. Becher added to the tally 68 minutes into the game for St. Louis City, set up by C. Wallem, to make it 3-0. T. Corbeanu got one back in the 97th minute for Toronto FC, set up by A. Coello, to make it 1-3. W. Zimmerman (23'), C. Wallem (28'), F. Fall (73') and A. Coello (74') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have St. Louis City 108 points stronger than Toronto FC. On current ratings the model favours St. Louis City at 62.1% in this pairing, and St. Louis City won this one. St. Louis City are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.