On file: 15 previous meetings dating to 2021, 26-18 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1581 and 1449, a 132-point margin, and the model splits the tie 65.0% / 21.1% / 13.8%.
Someone wins 78.8% of the time by this model. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 75.7% to 24.3%. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +81 and -51. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 9.2%. The home side is rated higher. Neither figure is thin: 518 and 202 matches respectively sit behind them. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Attack/defence pairs: 1.33/1.21 and 0.84/1.17. Between best and worst outcome there is 51.2 points of daylight. The forecast we stored before the match was 68.5% / 20.1% / 11.4%. The match did not follow it. First to second is a 43.9-point step, FC Dallas over the draw. The xG line reads 2.29 to 1.37. 132 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. One half each — FC Dallas in front on 1.33, Austin behind on 1.17.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
FC Dallas and Austin could not be separated in a goalless draw on 20 September 2026. M. Desler (3'), S. Moore (35') and J. Rosales (48') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have FC Dallas 132 points stronger than Austin. FC Dallas are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. Austin are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.