16 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 19-24. The latest was 2024, 1-1 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1323 and 1600, giving 12.5% / 20.6% / 66.9%.
79.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Its point estimate is 1-4. Flat distribution — 1-4 tops it at just 6.6%. Neither component contradicts the other: Philadelphia Union leads 1.64-0.92 forward and 1.07-1.83 back. Attack/defence pairs: 0.92/1.83 and 1.64/1.07. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. 66.9% goes to Philadelphia Union, the model's lean. Result on the day: 3-4. Logged in advance of kickoff — 13.6% / 21.0% / 65.4%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. No scoreline clear 8% individually. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.46 and 4.03. Between best and worst outcome there is 54.4 points of daylight. Philadelphia Union holds a 46.3-point edge on the next outcome. Philadelphia Union's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 77.2%. Versus the 1500 seed: -177 and +100. With 523 and 526 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Rating separation comes to 277 points.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Philadelphia Union edged past Sporting Kansas City 4-3 on 20 September 2026. Andre Luiz opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for Sporting Kansas City, set up by L. Johnsen, to make it 1-0. Andre Luiz added to the tally inside the first 10 minutes for Sporting Kansas City, set up by C. Harris, to make it 2-0. W. Meyer added to the tally in the 16th minute for Sporting Kansas City, set up by E. Karic, to make it 3-0. B. Damiani got one back 64 minutes into the game for Philadelphia Union, set up by F. Westfield, to make it 1-3. C. Sullivan pulled one back 66 minutes into the game for Philadelphia Union, set up by D. Jean Jacques, to make it 2-3. M. Iloski levelled it 68 minutes into the game for Philadelphia Union, set up by Q. Sullivan, to make it 3-3. Z. Bassong (an own goal) put Philadelphia Union in front 73 minutes into the game to make it 4-3. K. Agyabeng (45'), L. Johnsen (53'), C. Sullivan (70'), K. Wagner (80') and (96') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Philadelphia Union 277 points stronger than Sporting Kansas City. On current ratings the model favours Philadelphia Union at 66.9% in this pairing, and Philadelphia Union won this one. Philadelphia Union's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Major League Soccer 2026. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.01 to 0.65.