The head-to-head counts 3 recorded meetings since 2019: 0 to Houston Dynamo, 2 to FC Cincinnati, 1 drawn, 4-6 on aggregate. Most recently 2023, 1-2 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1543 against 1537 — a 47.3% / 25.5% / 27.2% split.
A 6-point difference on the rating scale. 2-1 leads the scorelines at 8.7% — not a strong call. Scorelines above 8%: 1. Elo expected shares: 60.1% and 39.9%. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.44 to 0.89 says FC Cincinnati, 0.82 to 1.66 says Houston Dynamo. Outcomes span 21.8 points. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +43 and +37. With 520 and 272 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Houston Dynamo holds a 20.1-point edge on the next outcome. Most likely single result is Houston Dynamo on 47.3%. The forecast we stored before the match was 50.0% / 24.9% / 25.1%. The result went the other way. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The model gives 74.5% to someone winning. Attack/defence pairs: 0.89/0.82 and 1.44/1.66. Result on the day: 2-2. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.