Too close to call: 36.1% / 28.0% / 35.9%, top outcome 36.1%.
Philadelphia Union's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 50.0%. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Both components point the same way, toward Philadelphia Union: 1.64 to 1.25 going forward, 1.07 to 1.20 going back. Higher rating: the away side. The four component numbers read 1.25, 1.20, 1.64, 1.07. Someone wins 72.0% of the time by this model. Most likely single result is San Diego on 36.1%. The leading two outcomes sit 0.2 points apart, which is not a real preference. The ratings draw on 63 and 526 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The xG line reads 1.99 to 2.65. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 6.7%. Its rounded call is 1-2. The three outcomes sit within 8.1 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +35 and +100. A 65-point difference on the rating scale. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 52.9% / 24.2% / 22.9%. The result went the other way.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Philadelphia Union overwhelmed San Diego 5-0 on 14 September 2026. Bruno Damiani (27'), Alejandro Alvarado Jr (47') and Neil Pierre (52') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings the model puts Philadelphia Union at around 2.65 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Philadelphia Union's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Major League Soccer 2026.