On file: 35 previous meetings dating to 2012, 53-50 on goals. Last time: 2025, 2-2 in comp-apf-MLS. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1542 and 1539 — 3 points — for a 46.8% / 25.6% / 27.6% split.
With 494 and 515 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 57.2% / 23.2% / 19.6%. The result went the other way. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.05 and 2.20. Its rounded call is 2-2. The tie closed out 1-2. A decisive result carries 74.4% against 25.6% for the draw. A 3-point spread sits between the two figures. Versus the 1500 seed: +42 and +39. The split is one apiece: Chicago Fire leads the attacking rate on 1.32, New England Revolution the defensive on 1.04. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-2 highest at 7.3%. Spread across the three results is 21.2 points. Expected shares on the Elo curve: 59.7% and 40.3%. Higher rating: the home side. The gap between first and second outcome is 19.2 points, Chicago Fire ahead of New England Revolution.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
New England Revolution edged past Chicago Fire 2-1 on 13 September 2026. Dor Turgeman opened the scoring in the 39th minute for New England Revolution, set up by Jackson Yueill, to make it 1-0. Peyton Miller added to the tally 47 minutes into the game for New England Revolution, set up by Dor Turgeman, to make it 2-0. Maren Haile-Selassie pulled one back 62 minutes into the game for Chicago Fire, set up by Robin Lod, to make it 1-2. Noah Allen (43'), Matt Polster (52'), Peyton Miller (58') and Sergio Oregel (84') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives New England Revolution only a 27.6% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.