The head-to-head counts 27 recorded meetings since 2012: 7 to San Jose Earthquakes, 15 to Houston Dynamo, 5 drawn, 33-44 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-0 in comp-apf-MLS. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1504 and 1543 — 39 points — for a 40.1% / 27.1% / 32.8% split.
Raw profiles are 1.17 and 1.21 against 0.89 and 0.82. The leading outcome clears the second by 7.3 points. Point estimate: 1-1. The underlying goal expectation is 1.43 for San Jose Earthquakes, 1.46 for Houston Dynamo. Between best and worst outcome there is 13.0 points of daylight. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +4 and +43. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A 39-point spread sits between the two figures. The model's preferred outcome is San Jose Earthquakes at 40.1%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 35.9% / 28.0% / 36.1%. The match did not follow it. The model gives 72.9% to someone winning. San Jose Earthquakes has the better scoring rate (1.17) and Houston Dynamo the better defensive one (0.82). Behind them are 496 and 520 rated matches. Houston Dynamo's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 46.3%.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
San Jose Earthquakes edged past Houston Dynamo 1-0 on 13 September 2026. Daniel Munie opened the scoring in the 38th minute for San Jose Earthquakes, set up by Beau Leroux, to make it 1-0. Ronaldo Vieira (1'), Bruce Arena (3'), Beau Leroux (19'), Agustin Resch (75') and Benjamin Kikanovic (90') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Houston Dynamo slightly the stronger side, by 39 rating points over San Jose Earthquakes, even though it was San Jose Earthquakes who won this one. San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.