On file: 9 previous meetings dating to 2012, 26-16 on goals. Last time: 2024, 4-1 in comp-apf-MLS. History aside, the live ratings of 1464 and 1363 drive a 61.1% / 22.2% / 16.7% distribution.
Expected goals sit at 2.13 against 1.26. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -36 and -137. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 9.6%. Played and finished 1-0. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 72.2% to 27.8%. Colorado Rapids carries the largest share, 61.1%. Neither figure is thin: 500 and 511 matches respectively sit behind them. The higher rating belongs to the home side. There is no trade-off to weigh: Colorado Rapids scores at the higher rate (0.94 to 0.87) and concedes at the lower (1.07 to 1.52). Spread across the three results is 44.4 points. Win-or-lose totals 77.8%; the draw takes the rest. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. 101 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. In absolute terms: Colorado Rapids 0.94/1.07, CF Montreal 0.87/1.52 on attack and defence.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Colorado Rapids edged past CF Montreal 1-0 on 13 September 2026. Paxten Aaronson opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 43rd minute for Colorado Rapids to make it 1-0. Dante Sealy (81') and Kosi Thompson (85') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Colorado Rapids at 61.1% in this pairing, and Colorado Rapids won this one. CF Montreal's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026.