Across 16 recorded meetings back to 2018 the split is 4-2-10 from Sporting Kansas City's side on wins, 16-34 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-4 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1323 against 1547 — a 17.4% / 22.4% / 60.2% split.
2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 224 points of rating separation. Most likely single result is Los Angeles FC on 60.2%. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. The four component numbers read 0.92, 1.83, 1.15, 0.92. Behind them are 523 and 323 rated matches. The higher-rated side expects 71.4% of the points; the other side 28.6%. 77.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-2. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 8.5%. The away side is rated higher. The tie closed out 3-1. Versus the 1500 seed: -177 and +47. Expected goals come out at 1.25 to 2.83. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 12.7% / 20.7% / 66.7%. The result went the other way. A 37.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The distribution runs from 60.2% down to 17.4%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Sporting Kansas City beat Los Angeles FC 3-1 on 13 September 2026. André Luiz opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Sporting Kansas City, set up by Justin Reynolds, to make it 1-0. Taylor Calheira added to the tally in the 31st minute for Sporting Kansas City to make it 2-0. Denis Bouanga pulled one back 47 minutes into the game for Los Angeles FC, set up by Jacob Shaffelburg, to make it 1-2. Jacob Bartlett added to the tally 71 minutes into the game for Sporting Kansas City to make it 3-1. Sergi Palencia (19'), Kwaku Agyabeng (44'), Evgen Cheberko (80') and Calvin Harris (82') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Los Angeles FC clearly the stronger side, by 224 rating points over Sporting Kansas City, even though it was Sporting Kansas City who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Sporting Kansas City only a 17.4% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.