Prior record: 7-4-10 across 21 since 2017. Most recent 2026, 0-0 in comp-apf-MLS. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1388 and 1398 — 10 points — for a 44.8% / 26.1% / 29.1% split.
Expected goals sit at 1.76 against 1.66. Rounded, that is 1-1. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Behind them are 506 and 348 rated matches. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 10 points. First to second is a 15.7-point step, DC United over Atlanta United FC. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -112 and -102. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Result on the day: 0-0. On components there is almost nothing in it: 0.92 to 0.93 forward, 1.32 to 1.29 back. Raw profiles are 0.92 and 1.32 against 0.93 and 1.29. The model's preferred outcome is DC United at 44.8%. The distribution runs from 44.8% down to 26.1%. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 9.5% — not a strong call. Win-or-lose totals 73.9%; the draw takes the rest. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 57.8% to 42.2%. The quoted ratings already absorb this match.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.