On record: 23 meetings from 2015, 36-38 on aggregate, 3 drawn. Their most recent was 2025, 2-4 in comp-apf-MLS. Today those sides rate 1491 and 1462, 29 apart, which resolves to 50.9% / 24.7% / 24.4%.
Expected goals sit at 2.68 against 2.62. No scoreline stands out; 2-2 only leads on 6.2%. The leading outcome clears the second by 26.2 points. Orlando City SC carries the largest share, 50.9%. Spread across the three results is 26.5 points. Expected shares 63.2% against 36.8% on Elo. One half each — Orlando City SC in front on 1.30, Toronto FC behind on 1.39. Result on the day: 3-0. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Both figures rest on decent samples, 410 and 520 matches. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 29 points. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Point estimate: 2-2. Raw profiles are 1.30 and 1.62 against 1.20 and 1.39. The model gives 75.3% to someone winning. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -9 and -38.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.