Across 9 recorded meetings back to 2022 the split is 2-3-4 from FC Cincinnati's side on wins, 11-13 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-2 in comp-apf-MLS. History aside, the live ratings of 1537 and 1569 drive a 41.4% / 26.8% / 31.8% distribution.
2-2 leads the scorelines at 6.2% — not a strong call. Scorelines above 8%: 0. The ratings draw on 272 and 167 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. A decisive result carries 73.2% against 26.8% for the draw. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. In absolute terms: FC Cincinnati 1.44/1.66, Charlotte 1.29/1.01 on attack and defence. Result on the day: 3-3. FC Cincinnati holds a 9.6-point edge on the next outcome. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 32 points. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Charlotte's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 45.3%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 47.8% / 25.4% / 26.8%. The match did not follow it. On expected goals the model has it 2.16 against 2.89. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.44 to 1.29 says FC Cincinnati, 1.01 to 1.66 says Charlotte.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
FC Cincinnati and Charlotte drew 3-3 on 12 September 2026. Pavel Bucha opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for FC Cincinnati, set up by Tom Barlow, to make it 1-0. Liel Abada levelled it inside the first 7 minutes for Charlotte to make it 1-1. Pep Biel put Charlotte in front from the penalty spot in the 17th minute to make it 2-1. Kevin Denkey levelled it 51 minutes into the game for FC Cincinnati, set up by Andrei Chirilă, to make it 2-2. Charlotte regained the lead through Idan Toklomati Jorno 55 minutes into the game, set up by Rodolfo Aloko, to make it 3-2. Kevin Denkey levelled it in the 91st minute for FC Cincinnati, set up by Bryan Ramirez, to make it 3-3. Samuel Mawuena Gidi (76'), Kenji Mboma Dem (81') and Rodolfo Aloko (83') were booked. Charlotte are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.