On record: 20 meetings from 2020, 31-28 on aggregate, 6 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-4 in comp-apf-MLS. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1654 and 1665 — 11 points — for a 44.7% / 26.1% / 29.2% split.
Played and finished 2-2. Someone wins 73.9% of the time by this model. The xG line reads 2.28 to 2.57. The ratings draw on 241 and 232 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Outcomes span 18.6 points. Reduced to one result that is 2-2. Inter Miami holds a 15.5-point edge on the next outcome. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +154 and +165. In absolute terms: Inter Miami 1.86/1.30, Nashville SC 1.46/0.83 on attack and defence. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Distance between the ratings: 11 points, narrow on this scale. Their expected shares of the points are 57.7% and 42.3%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 47.1% / 25.6% / 27.3%. The match did not follow it. The model's preferred outcome is Inter Miami at 44.7%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Inter Miami and Nashville SC drew 2-2 on 12 September 2026. Alex Muyl (9'), Fricio Caicedo (41'), Maxwell Woledzi (43') and Germán Berterame (86') were booked. Inter Miami are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.