29 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 32-40. The latest was 2026, 0-3 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1543 against 1433, and the model turns that into 62.4% / 21.9% / 15.8%.
Expected goals come out at 1.68 to 1.01. Between best and worst outcome there is 46.6 points of daylight. 62.4% goes to Houston Dynamo, the model's lean. Expected shares 73.3% against 26.7% on Elo. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Raw profiles are 0.89 and 0.82 against 0.91 and 1.27. Behind them are 520 and 522 rated matches. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.5% — not a strong call. The two halves pull apart — Real Salt Lake better going forward at 0.91, Houston Dynamo tighter at the back on 0.82. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Higher rating: the home side. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +43 and -67. The gap between first and second outcome is 40.5 points, Houston Dynamo ahead of the draw. Final score: 2-1. 78.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Houston Dynamo edged past Real Salt Lake 2-1 on 10 September 2026. Guilherme Augusto opened the scoring 57 minutes into the game for Houston Dynamo, set up by Lawrence Ennali, to make it 1-0. Saba Lobjanidze levelled it 76 minutes into the game for Real Salt Lake, set up by Lineker Rodrigues, to make it 1-1. Houston Dynamo regained the lead through Mateusz Bogusz late on, in the 87th minute, set up by Guilherme Augusto, to make it 2-1. Diego Luna (30'), Juan Arias (33'), Héctor Herrera (54') and Colin Guske (67') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Houston Dynamo 110 points stronger than Real Salt Lake. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings the model favours Houston Dynamo at 62.4% in this pairing, and Houston Dynamo won this one. Real Salt Lake's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026.