On record: 22 meetings from 2017, 28-29 on aggregate, 6 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1491 against 1581 — a 32.8% / 27.1% / 40.1% split.
In absolute terms: Minnesota United FC 1.25/1.38, FC Dallas 1.33/1.21 on attack and defence. Both components point the same way, toward FC Dallas: 1.33 to 1.25 going forward, 1.21 to 1.38 going back. Point estimate: 2-2. The ratings draw on 334 and 518 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The higher-rated side expects 53.6% of the points; the other side 46.4%. First to second is a 7.3-point step, FC Dallas over Minnesota United FC. Outcomes span 13.0 points. Flat distribution — 2-2 tops it at just 6.9%. A decisive result carries 72.9% against 27.1% for the draw. 40.1% goes to FC Dallas, the model's lean. The forecast we stored before the match was 44.4% / 26.2% / 29.4%. The match did not follow it. The tie closed out 1-2. On expected goals the model has it 2.24 against 2.47. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
FC Dallas edged past Minnesota United FC 2-1 on 10 September 2026. Kaick da Silva Ferreira opened the scoring 62 minutes into the game for FC Dallas, set up by Joaquín Valiente Cioli, to make it 1-0. Kelvin Yeboah levelled it 73 minutes into the game for Minnesota United FC to make it 1-1. FC Dallas regained the lead through Santiago Moreno late on, in the 84th minute, set up by Samuel Sarver, to make it 2-1. Osaze Urhoghide (7'), Nectarios Triantis (69'), Ramiro (83') and Owen Gene (89') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. Minnesota United FC's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026. FC Dallas are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.