On file: 11 previous meetings dating to 2021, 22-19 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-3 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1542 and 1654, a 112-point margin, and the model splits the tie 30.1% / 26.3% / 43.6%.
Inter Miami has the better scoring rate (1.86) and Chicago Fire the better defensive one (1.25). Win-or-lose totals 73.7%; the draw takes the rest. In absolute terms: Chicago Fire 1.32/1.25, Inter Miami 1.86/1.30 on attack and defence. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +42 and +154. Between best and worst outcome there is 17.3 points of daylight. As a single number the model says 2-3. No scoreline stands out; 2-3 only leads on 5.7%. The away side is rated higher. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. 112 points of rating separation. Most likely single result is Inter Miami on 43.6%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 31.4% / 26.7% / 41.9%. The result went the other way. First to second is a 13.5-point step, Inter Miami over Chicago Fire. The match finished 1-1. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The xG line reads 2.55 to 3.13.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Chicago Fire and Inter Miami drew 1-1 on 10 September 2026. Robert Lewandowski opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Chicago Fire, set up by Andrew Gutman, to make it 1-0. Carlos Henrique Casimiro levelled it 48 minutes into the game for Inter Miami, set up by Lionel Messi, to make it 1-1. Telasco Segovia (4'), Maximiliano Falcon (24'), Jonathan Dean (50'), Djé D'Avilla (59') and Germán Berterame (71') were booked. Inter Miami are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.