Across 29 recorded meetings back to 2015 the split is 10-8-11 from New York City FC's side on wins, 36-38 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1520 against 1539 — a 43.4% / 26.4% / 30.2% split.
Attack/defence pairs: 0.98/0.95 and 1.31/1.04. Before kickoff our model had this at 51.1% / 24.6% / 24.2%. That one did not come off. A 19-point spread sits between the two figures. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +20 and +39. The underlying goal expectation is 1.53 for New York City FC, 1.67 for New England Revolution. The edge is split: New England Revolution scores at the higher rate (1.31 to 0.98), New York City FC concedes at the lower (0.95 to 1.04). 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.4% — not a strong call. Outcomes span 17.0 points. The match finished 1-2. New York City FC holds a 13.2-point edge on the next outcome. 73.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Scorelines above 8%: 3. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
New England Revolution edged past New York City FC 2-1 on 10 September 2026. Carles Gil opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 12 minutes for New England Revolution to make it 1-0. Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos levelled it 71 minutes into the game for New York City FC, set up by Nicolás Fernández Mercau, to make it 1-1. New England Revolution regained the lead through Dániel Gazdag in the 93rd minute, set up by Ilay Feingold, to make it 2-1. Alhassan Yusuf (18') and Matt Polster (31') were booked.