The head-to-head counts 11 recorded meetings since 2020: 2 to Toronto FC, 6 to Nashville SC, 3 drawn, 12-17 on aggregate. Most recently 2025, 0-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1462 and 1665, a 203-point margin, and the model splits the tie 19.5% / 23.2% / 57.3%.
Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 520 and 232 matches. In absolute terms: Toronto FC 1.20/1.39, Nashville SC 1.46/0.83 on attack and defence. There is no trade-off to weigh: Nashville SC scores at the higher rate (1.46 to 1.20) and concedes at the lower (0.83 to 1.39). Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. The three results cover 37.8 points. The xG line reads 1.47 to 2.74. The scoreline spread is even — 1-2 on 8.2% leads, but only just. Higher rating: the away side. The model's preferred outcome is Nashville SC at 57.3%. Someone wins 76.8% of the time by this model. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. The forecast we stored before the match was 18.1% / 22.7% / 59.3%. The result went the other way. The rating gap itself is 203 points, which is wide by the model's standards.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Toronto FC edged past Nashville SC 2-1 on 9 September 2026. Our current Elo ratings make Nashville SC clearly the stronger side, by 203 rating points over Toronto FC, even though it was Toronto FC who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Toronto FC only a 19.5% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.