Across 25 recorded meetings back to 2017 the split is 11-8-6 in Atlanta United FC's favour on wins, 35-29 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1398 and 1491, a 93-point margin, and the model splits the tie 32.5% / 27.0% / 40.5%.
Orlando City SC holds a 8.0-point edge on the next outcome. The split is one apiece: Orlando City SC leads the attacking rate on 1.30, Atlanta United FC the defensive on 1.29. Before kickoff our model had this at 31.6% / 26.8% / 41.6%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The model gives 73.0% to someone winning. Distance between the ratings: 93 points, wide on this scale. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Raw profiles are 0.93 and 1.29 against 1.30 and 1.62. Between best and worst outcome there is 13.5 points of daylight. The tie closed out 2-3. The xG line reads 2.25 to 2.28. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-2 at 7.1%. The model's preferred outcome is Orlando City SC at 40.5%.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Orlando City SC edged past Atlanta United FC 3-2 on 9 September 2026. David Brekalo (an own goal) opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Atlanta United FC to make it 1-0. Antoine Griezmann levelled it in the 26th minute for Orlando City SC, set up by Joran Gerbet, to make it 1-1. Iván Angulo put Orlando City SC in front 58 minutes into the game, set up by Martin Ojeda, to make it 2-1. Antoine Griezmann added to the tally 77 minutes into the game for Orlando City SC, set up by Justin Ellis, to make it 3-1. Tyrese Spicer (an own goal) pulled one back in the 97th minute for Atlanta United FC to make it 2-3. David Brekalo (42'), Tomás Jacob (67') and Justin Ellis (88') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Orlando City SC are 93 points stronger than Atlanta United FC.