Across 19 recorded meetings back to 2017 the split is 5-4-10 from Portland Timbers's side on wins, 29-34 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-2 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1459 against 1491 — a 41.3% / 26.8% / 31.8% split.
The underlying goal expectation is 2.35 for Portland Timbers, 2.23 for Minnesota United FC. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The away side is rated higher. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-2 on 7.0%. The match finished 5-4. First to second is a 9.5-point step, Portland Timbers over Minnesota United FC. Logged in advance of kickoff — 36.0% / 28.0% / 36.0%. That one did not come off. Behind them are 529 and 334 rated matches. Versus the 1500 seed: -41 and -9. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 54.7% to 45.3%. Its point estimate is 2-2. Attack/defence pairs: 1.15/1.32 and 1.25/1.38. The distribution runs from 41.3% down to 26.8%. Each side owns one half of the argument — Minnesota United FC the scoring rate at 1.25, Portland Timbers the conceding rate at 1.32. Scorelines above 8%: 0. 32 points of rating separation. The model gives 73.1% to someone winning.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Portland Timbers edged past Minnesota United FC 5-4 on 6 September 2026. Vincent Janssen opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 11 minutes for Portland Timbers to make it 1-0. Drake Callender (an own goal) added to the tally in the 20th minute for Portland Timbers to make it 2-0. Vincent Janssen added to the tally in the 26th minute for Portland Timbers, set up by David Da Costa, to make it 3-0. Marcus Caldeira got one back in the 32nd minute for Minnesota United FC, set up by Joaquín Pereyra, to make it 1-3. Anthony Markanich pulled one back in the 37th minute for Minnesota United FC, set up by Kelvin Yeboah, to make it 2-3. Marcus Caldeira levelled it 50 minutes into the game for Minnesota United FC to make it 3-3. Portland Timbers regained the lead through Vincent Janssen 55 minutes into the game, set up by Ariel Lassiter, to make it 4-3. Kristoffer Velde added to the tally 71 minutes into the game for Portland Timbers, set up by Antony, to make it 5-3. Tomás Chancalay pulled one back in the 92nd minute for Minnesota United FC, set up by Carlos Harvey, to make it 4-5. Michael Boxall (24'), Finn Surman (52'), Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleño (74') and Morris Duggan (96') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Minnesota United FC slightly the stronger side, by 32 rating points over Portland Timbers, even though it was Portland Timbers who won this one. On current ratings the model puts Portland Timbers at around 2.35 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Minnesota United FC's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026.