On record: 19 meetings from 2018, 21-43 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-3 in comp-apf-MLS. History aside, the live ratings of 1433 and 1547 drive a 29.9% / 26.3% / 43.8% distribution.
Most likely single result is Los Angeles FC on 43.8%. Behind them are 522 and 323 rated matches. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 9.9%. Played and finished 2-2. Rounded, that is 1-1. Los Angeles FC leads the distribution by 13.9 points over Real Salt Lake. Raw profiles are 0.91 and 1.27 against 1.15 and 0.92. The away side is rated higher. Los Angeles FC is ahead on each half — 1.15 to 0.91 in attack, 0.92 to 1.27 in defence. The three results cover 17.5 points. Expected goals come out at 1.24 to 1.96. Logged in advance of kickoff — 32.6% / 27.1% / 40.3%. That one did not come off. Win-or-lose totals 73.7%; the draw takes the rest. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Versus the 1500 seed: -67 and +47. By expected share of the points: 43.0% and 57.0%. A 114-point difference on the rating scale.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Real Salt Lake and Los Angeles FC drew 2-2 on 6 September 2026. Denis Bouanga opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Los Angeles FC, set up by Son Heung-min, to make it 1-0. Saba Lobjanidze levelled it in the 18th minute for Real Salt Lake to make it 1-1. Los Angeles FC regained the lead through Son Heung-min in the 38th minute, set up by Denis Bouanga, to make it 2-1. Noel Caliskan levelled it 75 minutes into the game for Real Salt Lake to make it 2-2. Juan Arias (30'), Luca Moisa (60') and Colin Guske (77') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Los Angeles FC 114 points stronger than Real Salt Lake. Real Salt Lake's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026.