The head-to-head counts 12 recorded meetings since 2021: 2 to Austin, 4 to San Jose Earthquakes, 6 drawn, 21-28 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-5 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1449 and 1504, a 55-point margin, and the model splits the tie 37.7% / 27.6% / 34.7%.
Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 9.8%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.84/1.17 and 1.17/1.21. Both figures rest on decent samples, 202 and 496 matches. Most likely single result is Austin on 37.7%. The tie closed out 1-1. The higher rating belongs to the away side. A 55-point spread sits between the two figures. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. By expected share of the points: 51.4% and 48.6%. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Goal expectation splits 1.51 to 1.84. Only 3.0 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. One edge each: scoring to San Jose Earthquakes (1.17 v 0.84), conceding to Austin (1.17 v 1.21). Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. All three results are bunched inside 10.1 points. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -51 and +4. A decisive result carries 72.4% against 27.6% for the draw.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Austin and San Jose Earthquakes drew 1-1 on 6 September 2026. Reid Roberts (65') was booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: San Jose Earthquakes are 55 points stronger than Austin. Austin are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.