30 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 49-47. The latest was 2025, 4-2 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1581 and 1323, giving 78.2% / 16.7% / 5.1%.
Win-or-lose totals 83.3%; the draw takes the rest. FC Dallas leads the distribution by 61.5 points over the draw. The model's preferred outcome is FC Dallas at 78.2%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. xG: 3.60 to 1.50. The three results cover 73.1 points. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 77.8% / 16.8% / 5.3%. It landed. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +81 and -177. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 3-1 on 7.1%. Neither component contradicts the other: FC Dallas leads 1.33-0.92 forward and 1.21-1.83 back. Rounded, that is 3-1. Result on the day: 4-3. In absolute terms: FC Dallas 1.33/1.21, Sporting Kansas City 0.92/1.83 on attack and defence. A 258-point spread sits between the two figures. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. With 518 and 523 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
FC Dallas edged past Sporting Kansas City 4-3 on 6 September 2026. Moises Castillo (88') and Raphael Wicky (100') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have FC Dallas 258 points stronger than Sporting Kansas City. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model favours FC Dallas at 78.2% in this pairing, and FC Dallas won this one. FC Dallas are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.