Across 31 recorded meetings back to 2012 the split is 11-10-10 in Toronto FC's favour on wins, 51-48 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1462 against 1542, and the model turns that into 34.1% / 27.5% / 38.5%.
Chicago Fire sits 4.4 points above the next most likely result. Before kickoff our model had this at 29.1% / 26.1% / 44.8%. That one did not come off. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 47.8% to 52.2%. Raw profiles are 1.20 and 1.39 against 1.32 and 1.25. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Rating separation comes to 80 points. The model gives 72.6% to someone winning. The scoreline spread is even — 2-2 on 6.9% leads, but only just. Top of the distribution: Chicago Fire, 38.5%. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.21 and 2.47. Versus the 1500 seed: -38 and +42. As a single number the model says 2-2. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 520 and 494 matches. Both components point the same way, toward Chicago Fire: 1.32 to 1.20 going forward, 1.25 to 1.39 going back.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.