On record: 10 meetings from 2012, 13-16 on aggregate, 3 drawn. Their most recent was 2023, 3-2 in comp-apf-MLS. History aside, the live ratings of 1481 and 1464 drive a 49.1% / 25.1% / 25.8% distribution.
The xG line reads 1.85 to 1.52. The gap between first and second outcome is 23.3 points, Columbus Crew ahead of Colorado Rapids. Played and finished 3-0. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Columbus Crew carries the largest share, 49.1%. Raw profiles are 1.16 and 1.20 against 0.94 and 1.07. A 17-point difference on the rating scale. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -19 and -36. Behind them are 532 and 500 rated matches. The higher rating expects 61.6% of the points, the lower 38.4%. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.16 to 0.94 says Columbus Crew, 1.07 to 1.20 says Colorado Rapids. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Before kickoff our model had this at 49.3% / 25.1% / 25.7%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The home side is rated higher. 74.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.