1491 against 1535 gives the model nothing to work with: 39.3% / 27.3% / 33.4%.
44 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Expected shares 53.0% against 47.0% on Elo. The forecast we stored before the match was 33.4% / 27.3% / 39.4%. The result went the other way. No scoreline stands out; 2-2 only leads on 6.4%. The underlying goal expectation is 2.32 for Orlando City SC, 2.75 for San Diego. Orlando City SC leads the distribution by 5.9 points over San Diego. Honours split: 1.30 forward for Orlando City SC, 1.20 back for San Diego. Final score: 1-0. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -9 and +35. The away side is rated higher. Neither figure is thin: 410 and 63 matches respectively sit behind them. The three outcomes sit within 12.0 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Its rounded call is 2-2. Someone wins 72.7% of the time by this model. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Attack/defence pairs: 1.30/1.62 and 1.25/1.20. Orlando City SC carries the largest share, 39.3%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Orlando City SC edged past San Diego 1-0 on 5 September 2026. Antoine Griezmann opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Orlando City SC, set up by Justin Ellis, to make it 1-0. Our current Elo ratings make San Diego slightly the stronger side, by 44 rating points over Orlando City SC, even though it was Orlando City SC who won this one.