Prior record: 12-10-11 across 33 since 2012. Most recent 2026, 2-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1600 and 1363, a 237-point margin, and the model splits the tie 76.3% / 17.4% / 6.2%.
Top of the distribution: Philadelphia Union, 76.3%. Higher rating: the home side. On expected goals the model has it 3.69 against 1.25. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 3-1 at 7.5%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 3-1. Both figures rest on decent samples, 526 and 511 matches. The distribution runs from 76.3% down to 6.2%. Philadelphia Union holds a 58.9-point edge on the next outcome. Neither component contradicts the other: Philadelphia Union leads 1.64-0.87 forward and 1.07-1.52 back. It ended 2-0. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +100 and -137. 82.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The four component numbers read 1.64, 1.07, 0.87, 1.52. No scoreline clear 8% individually. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The higher-rated side expects 85.0% of the points; the other side 15.0%. Distance between the ratings: 237 points, wide on this scale. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 60.0% / 22.5% / 17.5%. The result went the way that forecast pointed.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Philadelphia Union beat CF Montreal 2-0 on 5 September 2026. Danley Jean Jacques opened the scoring 57 minutes into the game for Philadelphia Union to make it 1-0. Cavan Sullivan added to the tally 75 minutes into the game for Philadelphia Union to make it 2-0. 7 players were booked, among them Jovan Lukic (6'), Gennadiy Synchuk (14'), Bruno Damiani (24'), Samuel Piette (29'), Dawid Bugaj (56') and Kai Wagner (71'). The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Philadelphia Union 237 points stronger than CF Montreal. On current ratings the model favours Philadelphia Union at 76.3% in this pairing, and Philadelphia Union won this one. Philadelphia Union's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Major League Soccer 2026. CF Montreal's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026.