Prior record: 3-2-4 across 9 since 2021. Most recent 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-MLS. Today those sides rate 1520 and 1665, 145 apart, which resolves to 26.1% / 25.2% / 48.6%.
Win-or-lose totals 74.7%; the draw takes the rest. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Before kickoff our model had this at 28.8% / 26.0% / 45.3%. The result went the other way. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Versus the 1500 seed: +20 and +165. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.4%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 38.7% to 61.3%. Behind them are 425 and 232 rated matches. Played and finished 0-0. 48.6% goes to Nashville SC, the model's lean. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The four component numbers read 0.98, 0.95, 1.46, 0.83. The underlying goal expectation is 1.21 for New York City FC, 1.87 for Nashville SC. Nashville SC holds a 22.5-point edge on the next outcome. Nashville SC is ahead on each half — 1.46 to 0.98 in attack, 0.83 to 0.95 in defence. The three results cover 23.4 points. Distance between the ratings: 145 points, wide on this scale.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
New York City FC and Nashville SC could not be separated in a goalless draw on 4 September 2026. Andy Najar (13'), Patrick Yazbek (49'), Hany Mukhtar (53'), Kevin O'Toole (68') and Malachi Jones (90') were booked.