Across 11 recorded meetings back to 2021 the split is 6-2-3 in Portland Timbers's favour on wins, 15-12 on goals. The last was 2025, 0-0 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1459 against 1449, and the model turns that into 47.8% / 25.4% / 26.8%.
It ended 1-2. A 21.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The two ratings differ by 10 points. Outcomes span 22.4 points. Raw profiles are 1.15 and 1.32 against 0.84 and 1.17. The model gives 74.6% to someone winning. Its point estimate is 1-1. Goal expectation splits 1.98 to 1.50. Both figures rest on decent samples, 529 and 202 matches. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 58.5% / 22.9% / 18.6%. The result went the other way. Elo expected shares: 60.6% and 39.4%. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Portland Timbers carries the largest share, 47.8%. Neither side holds both halves — Portland Timbers scores at 1.15, Austin concedes at 1.17. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 9.1%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -41 and -51.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Austin edged past Portland Timbers 2-1 on 30 August 2026. F. Torres opened the scoring in the 25th minute for Austin, set up by J. Rosales, to make it 1-0. Antony levelled it from the penalty spot late on, in the 89th minute for Portland Timbers to make it 1-1. Austin regained the lead through O. Svatok in the 93rd minute to make it 2-1. Guilherme Biro (35'), M. Desler (47'), O. Svatok (88') and J. Caicedo (88') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Portland Timbers just 10 rating points ahead of Austin, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Austin only a 26.8% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Austin are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.67 to 0.5.