On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 4-1 on goals. Last time: 2025, 2-1 in comp-apf-MLS. History aside, the live ratings of 1535 and 1497 drive a 52.3% / 24.4% / 23.4% distribution.
2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Played and finished 3-1. By expected share of the points: 64.4% and 35.6%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 8.7%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The three results cover 28.9 points. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 63 and 526 rated matches respectively. 75.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Expected goals come out at 2.17 to 1.60. San Diego carries the largest share, 52.3%. The gap between first and second outcome is 27.9 points, San Diego ahead of the draw. Attack/defence pairs: 1.25/1.20 and 0.99/1.16. One edge each: scoring to San Diego (1.25 v 0.99), conceding to Los Angeles Galaxy (1.16 v 1.20). The forecast we stored before the match was 59.6% / 22.6% / 17.8%. It landed. The single-scoreline output is 2-1.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
San Diego beat Los Angeles Galaxy 3-1 on 30 August 2026. E. Achouri opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for San Diego, set up by A. Dreyer, to make it 1-0. K. Sargeant added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for San Diego, set up by A. Dreyer, to make it 2-0. H. Lozano pulled one back 55 minutes into the game for Los Angeles Galaxy to make it 1-2. A. Pellegrino added to the tally 70 minutes into the game for San Diego to make it 3-1. J. Tverskov (50') was sent off. 7 players were booked, among them M. Reus (21'), J. Tverskov (23'), Gabriel Pirani (30'), A. Godoy (39'), J. Tverskov (50') and J. Paintsil (65'). Expected goals put the gap at 2.41 to 0.86.