On file: 10 previous meetings dating to 2021, 19-16 on goals. Last time: 2025, 1-2 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1665 and 1537, giving 64.5% / 21.3% / 14.2%.
It ended 4-0. 78.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Raw profiles are 1.46 and 0.83 against 1.44 and 1.66. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 3-1 at 6.9%. First to second is a 43.2-point step, Nashville SC over the draw. Most and least likely outcomes are 50.3 points apart. By expected share of the points: 75.2% and 24.8%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 232 and 272 matches. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. 128 points of rating separation. Reduced to one result that is 3-1. On expected goals the model has it 3.60 against 1.60. The higher rating belongs to the home side. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +165 and +37. The forecast we stored before the match was 57.3% / 23.2% / 19.5%. That call matched the result. Nashville SC carries the largest share, 64.5%. Neither component contradicts the other: Nashville SC leads 1.46-1.44 forward and 0.83-1.66 back.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Nashville SC overwhelmed FC Cincinnati 4-0 on 30 August 2026. S. Surridge opened the scoring in the 43rd minute for Nashville SC, set up by C. Espinoza, to make it 1-0. H. Mukhtar added to the tally 53 minutes into the game for Nashville SC, set up by E. Saad, to make it 2-0. B. Acosta added to the tally late on, in the 89th minute for Nashville SC, set up by H. Mukhtar, to make it 3-0. A. Qasem added to the tally in the 96th minute for Nashville SC, set up by R. Baker-Whiting, to make it 4-0. O. Nwobodo (44'), A. Najar (49'), J. Palacios (70'), E. Tagseth (79') and B. J. Ramirez Leon (89') were booked. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model favours Nashville SC at 64.5% in this pairing, and Nashville SC won this one.