35 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 50-42. The latest was 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1481 against 1539 — a 37.1% / 27.8% / 35.1% split.
The away side is rated higher. Top to bottom the spread is only 9.3 points. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 58 points. Top of the distribution: Columbus Crew, 37.1%. The single-scoreline output is 1-2. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Expected goals sit at 1.80 against 2.12. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Logged in advance of kickoff — 54.1% / 24.0% / 22.0%. The match did not follow it. Expected shares 51.0% against 49.0% on Elo. In absolute terms: Columbus Crew 1.16/1.20, New England Revolution 1.31/1.04 on attack and defence. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 8.0%. The tie closed out 1-3. The leading two outcomes sit 2.0 points apart, which is not a real preference. Someone wins 72.2% of the time by this model. Versus the 1500 seed: -19 and +39. New England Revolution holds both halves of the profile — 1.31 against 1.16 for scoring, 1.04 against 1.20 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
New England Revolution beat Columbus Crew 3-1 on 30 August 2026. B. Mendez opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Columbus Crew, set up by M. Farsi, to make it 1-0. M. Polster levelled it in the 32nd minute for New England Revolution, set up by M. Fofana, to make it 1-1. D. Turgeman put New England Revolution in front in the 41st minute, set up by C. Gil, to make it 2-1. C. Gil added to the tally 79 minutes into the game for New England Revolution, set up by P. Miller, to make it 3-1. T. Karumanchi (25') and A. Yusuf (78') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: New England Revolution are 58 points stronger than Columbus Crew.