Prior record: 9-8-12 across 29 since 2015. Most recent 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1462 against 1520, and the model turns that into 37.0% / 27.8% / 35.2%.
Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 520 and 425 rated matches respectively. Rating separation comes to 58 points. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Someone wins 72.2% of the time by this model. Expected goals sit at 1.68 against 1.84. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Expected shares 51.0% against 49.0% on Elo. Only 1.8 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Top to bottom the spread is only 9.2 points. Logged in advance of kickoff — 29.9% / 26.3% / 43.8%. The match did not follow it. Final score: 1-1. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -38 and +20. The two halves pull apart — Toronto FC better going forward at 1.20, New York City FC tighter at the back on 0.95. Toronto FC carries the largest share, 37.0%. Higher rating: the away side. The four component numbers read 1.20, 1.39, 0.98, 0.95.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.