On file: 3 previous meetings dating to 2018, 1-6 on goals. Last time: 2022, 0-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1388 against 1547 — a 24.4% / 24.7% / 50.9% split.
Spread across the three results is 26.5 points. Los Angeles FC carries the largest share, 50.9%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -112 and +47. Its rounded call is 1-2. The higher-rated side expects 63.2% of the points; the other side 36.8%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 506 and 323 rated matches respectively. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The xG line reads 1.25 to 2.04. The match finished 0-0. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 9.7%. Neither component contradicts the other: Los Angeles FC leads 1.15-0.92 forward and 0.92-1.32 back. Win-or-lose totals 75.3%; the draw takes the rest. In absolute terms: DC United 0.92/1.32, Los Angeles FC 1.15/0.92 on attack and defence. A 159-point spread sits between the two figures. Los Angeles FC leads the distribution by 26.2 points over the draw. The forecast we stored before the match was 20.7% / 23.5% / 55.8%. The result went the other way.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.