On file: 12 previous meetings dating to 2012, 19-17 on goals. Last time: 2024, 2-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1545 and 1542 — 3 points — for a 46.8% / 25.6% / 27.6% split.
First to second is a 19.2-point step, Seattle Sounders over Chicago Fire. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 9.0%. Someone wins 74.4% of the time by this model. A 21.2-point range top to bottom. Result on the day: 2-2. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +45 and +42. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The four component numbers read 1.02, 0.93, 1.32, 1.25. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 45.6% / 25.9% / 28.5%. The result went the other way. Their expected shares of the points are 59.7% and 40.3%. Each side owns one half of the argument — Chicago Fire the scoring rate at 1.32, Seattle Sounders the conceding rate at 0.93. Its rounded call is 1-1. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Expected goals come out at 1.89 to 1.65. The rating gap itself is 3 points, which is narrow by the model's standards.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Seattle Sounders and Chicago Fire drew 2-2 on 29 August 2026. D. Joveljic opened the scoring inside the first 12 minutes for Seattle Sounders, set up by S. Gomez, to make it 1-0. M. Haile-Selassie levelled it in the 38th minute for Chicago Fire, set up by R. Lewandowski, to make it 1-1. Seattle Sounders regained the lead through D. Joveljic 48 minutes into the game, set up by A. Rusnak, to make it 2-1. R. Lewandowski levelled it late on, in the 82nd minute for Chicago Fire, set up by P. Dithejane, to make it 2-2. S. Brunell (51') was booked. Seattle Sounders are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.