On record: 19 meetings from 2018, 30-32 on aggregate, 7 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1547 and 1459, a 88-point margin, and the model splits the tie 59.4% / 22.6% / 18.0%.
A 88-point difference on the rating scale. Los Angeles FC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 70.7%. The three results cover 41.4 points. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +47 and -41. The model gives 77.4% to someone winning. Higher rating: the home side. Los Angeles FC holds a 36.8-point edge on the next outcome. Neither component contradicts the other: Los Angeles FC leads 1.15-1.15 forward and 0.92-1.32 back. Reduced to one result that is 2-1. The model's preferred outcome is Los Angeles FC at 59.4%. Before kickoff our model had this at 67.5% / 20.4% / 12.1%. The result went the other way. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. No scoreline stands out; 2-1 only leads on 9.2%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.15/0.92 and 1.15/1.32. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Played and finished 1-1. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.26 and 1.42.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Los Angeles FC and Portland Timbers drew 1-1 on 23 August 2026. D. Da Costa opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Portland Timbers, set up by K. Velde, to make it 1-0. D. Bouanga levelled it 79 minutes into the game for Los Angeles FC, set up by J. Terry, to make it 1-1. M. Choiniere (16'), K. Kelsy (31') and D. Bouanga (87') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Los Angeles FC are 88 points stronger than Portland Timbers.