Across 8 recorded meetings back to 2023 the split is 3-2-3 from St. Louis City's side on wins, 11-7 on goals. The last was 2025, 2-3 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1570 and 1543, a 27-point margin, and the model splits the tie 50.5% / 24.8% / 24.7%.
The underlying goal expectation is 1.67 for St. Louis City, 1.29 for Houston Dynamo. Raw profiles are 1.36 and 1.07 against 0.89 and 0.82. The forecast we stored before the match was 35.3% / 27.8% / 36.8%. The match did not follow it. Honours split: 1.36 forward for St. Louis City, 0.82 back for Houston Dynamo. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Behind them are 129 and 520 rated matches. Win-or-lose totals 75.2%; the draw takes the rest. The tie closed out 2-1. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.2% — not a strong call. 27 points of rating separation. The higher rating expects 62.9% of the points, the lower 37.1%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Higher rating: the home side. The gap between first and second outcome is 25.7 points, St. Louis City ahead of the draw.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
St. Louis City edged past Houston Dynamo 2-1 on 23 August 2026. S. Becher opened the scoring in the 23rd minute for St. Louis City, set up by A. Matan, to make it 1-0. I. Aliyu levelled it 75 minutes into the game for Houston Dynamo to make it 1-1. St. Louis City regained the lead through D. Polvara late on, in the 85th minute to make it 2-1. A. Matan (26'), M. Bogusz (58'), A. Bouzat (58'), S. Becher (63'), C. Holse (70') and Lucas Halter (81') were booked. St. Louis City are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.