Philadelphia Union rates 1600 to Austin's 1449 — 151 points. Split: 25.5% / 25.0% / 49.5%.
One recorded prior meeting: 2024, 2-2 in comp-apf-MLS. A single result carries no predictive load. Top of the distribution: Philadelphia Union, 49.5%. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 8.9%. The forecast we stored before the match was 31.6% / 26.8% / 41.6%. That one did not come off. Scorelines above 8%: 1. As a single number the model says 1-2. Higher rating: the away side. Attack/defence pairs: 0.84/1.17 and 1.64/1.07. Expected shares 37.9% against 62.1% on Elo. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Most and least likely outcomes are 24.5 points apart. Result on the day: 1-1. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -51 and +100. Goal expectation splits 1.33 to 2.57. The two ratings differ by 151 points. Philadelphia Union is ahead on each half — 1.64 to 0.84 in attack, 1.07 to 1.17 in defence. The model gives 75.0% to someone winning. First to second is a 24.0-point step, Philadelphia Union over Austin. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 202 and 526 rated matches respectively.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Austin and Philadelphia Union drew 1-1 on 23 August 2026. C. Sullivan opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Philadelphia Union, set up by N. Harriel, to make it 1-0. B. Hines-Ike levelled it in the 21st minute for Austin, set up by J. Rosales, to make it 1-1. J. Bueno (38') and N. Pierre (41') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Philadelphia Union 151 points stronger than Austin. Austin are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. Philadelphia Union's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Major League Soccer 2026.