On file: 7 previous meetings dating to 2015, 8-10 on goals. Last time: 2023, 0-4 in comp-apf-MLS. Today those sides rate 1491 and 1433, 58 apart, which resolves to 55.1% / 23.7% / 21.2%.
Rating separation comes to 58 points. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 410 and 522 rated matches respectively. Elo expected shares: 67.0% and 33.0%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.30/1.62 and 0.91/1.27. Reduced to one result that is 2-1. Orlando City SC leads the distribution by 31.4 points over the draw. Orlando City SC has the better scoring rate (1.30) and Real Salt Lake the better defensive one (1.27). Most likely single result is Orlando City SC on 55.1%. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 7.1%. The distribution runs from 55.1% down to 21.2%. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Logged in advance of kickoff — 39.5% / 27.2% / 33.3%. It landed. A decisive result carries 76.3% against 23.7% for the draw. Played and finished 2-1. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.45 and 1.99. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -9 and -67.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Orlando City SC edged past Real Salt Lake 2-1 on 22 August 2026. D. Marczuk opened the scoring in the 36th minute for Real Salt Lake, set up by S. Junqua, to make it 1-0. A. Griezmann levelled it 53 minutes into the game for Orlando City SC to make it 1-1. A. Griezmann put Orlando City SC in front late on, in the 81st minute to make it 2-1. Lineker Rodrigues (43'), A. Katranis (49'), K. Henry (71') and E. Atuesta (82') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Orlando City SC are 58 points stronger than Real Salt Lake. On current ratings the model favours Orlando City SC at 55.1% in this pairing, and Orlando City SC won this one. Real Salt Lake's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026.