Across 33 recorded meetings back to 2012 the split is 13-7-13 from New York Red Bulls's side on wins, 52-47 on goals. The last was 2026, 3-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Today those sides rate 1469 and 1542, 73 apart, which resolves to 35.0% / 27.7% / 37.2%.
Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The away side is rated higher. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.84 and 2.14. Chicago Fire carries the largest share, 37.2%. It ended 1-1. Rounded, that is 1-2. The top two outcomes are within 2.2 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. No scoreline clear 8% individually. The three outcomes sit within 9.5 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. The higher-rated side expects 51.2% of the points; the other side 48.8%. The two halves pull apart — Chicago Fire better going forward at 1.32, New York Red Bulls tighter at the back on 1.20. Raw profiles are 1.00 and 1.20 against 1.32 and 1.25. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 7.9%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -31 and +42.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire drew 1-1 on 22 August 2026. M. Haile-Selassie opened the scoring in the 38th minute for Chicago Fire, set up by V. Radojevic, to make it 1-0. C. Harper levelled it late on, in the 86th minute for New York Red Bulls, set up by E. M. Choupo-Moting, to make it 1-1. L. Barroso (17'), J. Waterman (64') and M. Sofo (66') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Chicago Fire are 73 points stronger than New York Red Bulls.