On record: 9 meetings from 2012, 7-15 on aggregate, 3 drawn. Their most recent was 2022, 0-4 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1363 and 1497, a 134-point margin, and the model splits the tie 27.4% / 25.6% / 47.0%.
Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -137 and -3. A 19.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The distribution runs from 47.0% down to 25.6%. Los Angeles Galaxy is ahead on each half — 0.99 to 0.87 in attack, 1.16 to 1.52 in defence. The four component numbers read 0.87, 1.52, 0.99, 1.16. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 33.2% / 27.2% / 39.6%. That one did not come off. Most likely single result is Los Angeles Galaxy on 47.0%. The match finished 2-2. Someone wins 74.4% of the time by this model. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 9.1%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 40.2% to 59.8%. Its rounded call is 1-2. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. A 134-point spread sits between the two figures.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
CF Montreal and Los Angeles Galaxy drew 2-2 on 22 August 2026. D. Rios opened the scoring in the 16th minute for CF Montreal to make it 1-0. R. Ramos levelled it in the 19th minute for Los Angeles Galaxy to make it 1-1. M. Yoshida put Los Angeles Galaxy in front 48 minutes into the game, set up by J. Paintsil, to make it 2-1. P. Owusu levelled it 79 minutes into the game for CF Montreal, set up by L. Petrasso, to make it 2-2. J. Marcinkowski (68') was sent off. B. Craig (67') and B. Ceballos (91') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Los Angeles Galaxy 134 points stronger than CF Montreal. CF Montreal's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Major League Soccer 2026.