On record: 3 meetings from 2019, 3-5 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2023, 1-0 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1537 against 1545 — a 45.3% / 26.0% / 28.8% split.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +37 and +45. FC Cincinnati sits 16.5 points above the next most likely result. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Its point estimate is 1-2. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 7.3%. It ended 1-1. The higher-rated side expects 41.9% of the points; the other side 58.1%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.98 and 2.29. FC Cincinnati carries the largest share, 45.3%. 8 points of rating separation. In absolute terms: FC Cincinnati 1.44/1.66, Seattle Sounders 1.02/0.93 on attack and defence. 74.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 272 and 559 matches. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 45.6% / 25.9% / 28.5%. The match did not follow it. The three results cover 19.3 points. Scorelines above 8%: 0. The edge is split: FC Cincinnati scores at the higher rate (1.44 to 1.02), Seattle Sounders concedes at the lower (0.93 to 1.66).
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
FC Cincinnati and Seattle Sounders drew 1-1 on 22 August 2026. Evander opened the scoring in the 24th minute for FC Cincinnati to make it 1-0. K. Kossa-Rienzi levelled it late on, in the 83rd minute for Seattle Sounders, set up by A. Rusnak, to make it 1-1. R. Sailor (38'), B. J. Ramirez Leon (64') and P. Kingston (75') were booked. Seattle Sounders are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.