Across 13 recorded meetings back to 2020 the split is 9-2-2 in Inter Miami's favour on wins, 25-11 on goals. The last was 2026, 4-2 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1654 against 1462 — a 72.0% / 19.0% / 9.0% split.
Reduced to one result that is 3-2. Spread thin across outcomes, 3-2 highest at 5.5%. The tie closed out 1-2. Goal expectation splits 3.83 to 2.10. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model's preferred outcome is Inter Miami at 72.0%. Higher rating: the home side. The higher rating expects 81.4% of the points, the lower 18.6%. Raw profiles are 1.86 and 1.30 against 1.20 and 1.39. Between best and worst outcome there is 63.0 points of daylight. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 241 and 520 rated matches respectively. Inter Miami is ahead on each half — 1.86 to 1.20 in attack, 1.30 to 1.39 in defence. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 81.7% / 15.1% / 3.2%. That one did not come off. First to second is a 53.0-point step, Inter Miami over the draw. 192 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Toronto FC edged past Inter Miami 2-1 on 22 August 2026. J. Sargent opened the scoring 59 minutes into the game for Toronto FC, set up by D. Salloi, to make it 1-0. D. Etienne added to the tally 62 minutes into the game for Toronto FC to make it 2-0. L. Messi pulled one back late on, in the 83rd minute for Inter Miami, set up by R. de Paul, to make it 1-2. R. Laryea (37'), M. Falcon (53') and D. Ayala (95') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Inter Miami clearly the stronger side, by 192 rating points over Toronto FC, even though it was Toronto FC who won this one. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Toronto FC only a 9% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Inter Miami are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026.