Prior record: 1-2-3 across 6 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-1 in comp-apf-MLS. History aside, the live ratings of 1459 and 1535 drive a 34.5% / 27.6% / 37.9% distribution.
2-2 leads the scorelines at 7.2% — not a strong call. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -41 and +35. There is no trade-off to weigh: San Diego scores at the higher rate (1.25 to 1.15) and concedes at the lower (1.20 to 1.32). Before kickoff our model had this at 34.0% / 27.4% / 38.6%. The match did not follow it. As a single number the model says 2-2. San Diego carries the largest share, 37.9%. The leading two outcomes sit 3.4 points apart, which is not a real preference. Scorelines above 8%: 0. The higher rating expects 51.6% of the points, the lower 48.4%. Higher rating: the away side. The three outcomes sit within 10.3 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The rating gap itself is 76 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Raw profiles are 1.15 and 1.32 against 1.25 and 1.20.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Portland Timbers beat San Diego 3-1 on 20 August 2026. K. Velde opened the scoring in the 29th minute for Portland Timbers, set up by C. Bassett, to make it 1-0. Gabriel Pirani levelled it 46 minutes into the game for San Diego, set up by L. Morgan, to make it 1-1. Portland Timbers regained the lead through A. Lassiter 51 minutes into the game, set up by J. Fory, to make it 2-1. D. Da Costa added to the tally 68 minutes into the game for Portland Timbers, set up by K. Velde, to make it 3-1. A. Lassiter (17') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make San Diego slightly the stronger side, by 76 rating points over Portland Timbers, even though it was Portland Timbers who won this one.