39 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 66-61. The latest was 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Today those sides rate 1497 and 1504, 7 apart, which resolves to 45.3% / 26.0% / 28.7%.
Scorelines above 8%: 2. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 58.3% to 41.7%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 35.7% / 27.9% / 36.4%. The result went the other way. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. 7 points of rating separation. Both figures rest on decent samples, 526 and 496 matches. Los Angeles Galaxy holds a 16.6-point edge on the next outcome. 45.3% goes to Los Angeles Galaxy, the model's lean. Versus the 1500 seed: -3 and +4. Expected goals sit at 1.78 against 1.84. 74.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The four component numbers read 0.99, 1.16, 1.17, 1.21. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 8.8%. Most and least likely outcomes are 19.3 points apart. The match finished 1-0. Neither side holds both halves — San Jose Earthquakes scores at 1.17, Los Angeles Galaxy concedes at 1.16.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Los Angeles Galaxy edged past San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 on 20 August 2026. L. Sanabria (45') was sent off. H. Miller (24'), N. Fernandez (29'), L. Sanabria (37'), L. Sanabria (45') and D. Romney (57') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, San Jose Earthquakes just 7 rating points ahead of Los Angeles Galaxy, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.12 to 1.11.