11 meetings sit in the record, first in 2021, aggregate 13-9. The latest was 2026, 1-3 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1545 against 1449, and the model turns that into 60.3% / 22.4% / 17.3%.
The forecast we stored before the match was 71.1% / 19.3% / 9.6%. The result went the other way. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. The model gives 77.6% to someone winning. Top of the distribution: Seattle Sounders, 60.3%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Expected goals 1.77-1.05. A 43.0-point range top to bottom. Both components point the same way, toward Seattle Sounders: 1.02 to 0.84 going forward, 0.93 to 1.17 going back. The four component numbers read 1.02, 0.93, 0.84, 1.17. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +45 and -51. Neither figure is thin: 559 and 202 matches respectively sit behind them. 96 points of rating separation. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.1% — not a strong call. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Seattle Sounders leads the distribution by 37.9 points over the draw. Result on the day: 1-2.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Austin edged past Seattle Sounders 2-1 on 20 August 2026. F. Torres opened the scoring 66 minutes into the game for Austin, set up by Z. Kolmanic, to make it 1-0. Guilherme Biro added to the tally late on, in the 87th minute for Austin, set up by B. Vazquez, to make it 2-0. S. Hawkins pulled one back late on, in the 90th minute for Seattle Sounders, set up by A. Rusnak, to make it 1-2. K. Kossa-Rienzi (48') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make Seattle Sounders slightly the stronger side, by 96 rating points over Austin, even though it was Austin who won this one. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Austin only a 17.3% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Seattle Sounders are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. Austin are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in Major League Soccer 2026. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.93 to 0.55.